Borrowed money in the market stands at 1.95% of GDP, higher than 95% of every quarter since 1947.
Chip stocks reached 18.5% below their recent high and stayed down for days in a row.
A sustained chip-sector pullback like this preceded the 2008, late-2018, and 2022 declines by one to eight months.
The other side
Riskier company debt sold off at 1.7 standard deviations beyond normal today, but not yet for enough days in a row to confirm. 2 of 4 tracked warning signs read normal.
MONETARY POLICYNew York Fed President Williams said bond yields near 5% are a sign of a strong economy. This view may influence expectations for future interest rate decisions.
ECONOMYThe Fed's Beige Book noted economic activity increased modestly since early July, with employment rising very slightly. Prices increased moderately in eight of twelve districts, pointing to ongoing inflationary pressure.
CYBERSECURITYA Russian-linked cybercrime operation was taken down with assistance from CrowdStrike, disrupting the Sality botnet behind years of attacks.
CRWDEARNINGSDell Technologies shares surged 15.8%, a move bigger than 99% of its days over the past three years, following a strong earnings report that beat expectations.
DELLELECTIONSShares of US listed Brazilian companies are trading higher after a new poll showed a narrowing race ahead of the October presidential election.
AVGO's chart has taken back its gains despite a strong business performance.
Read the full breakdown →The Big PictureInvestors are differentiating within the AI compute theme, rewarding direct enablers of cluster scale-out like ANET while punishing the memory names facing a cyclical or supply-driven hangover. This selectivity suggests the broad 'everything wins' phase is fading, and the edge now lies with companies showing near-term networking or data-center infrastructure pull-through rather than commodity-like component names.
Read the full thesis →No company behind it, no fee, no advertising, nothing to sell you. This is a personal research project, run in the open.
Nothing here is written from memory or opinion. If a figure appears it traces back to real market data or a filing, and the system refuses to publish claims it cannot ground.
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