Next session · the S&P 500
Monday · Sep 14
Red is the chance of a lower close, green a higher one. A normal-sized day expected, leaning slightly lower. The dashed line is the options crowd's own spread.
Conviction held near a coin flip until our track record proves the signal
We lean lower; the options crowd is priced the other way. The options pricing leans toward a higher close, and is braced for a bigger move than we expect. On our record the crowd's lean has more often been wrong than right, and that is already counted in this call. The crowd is buying more downside protection than usual, heavier than 99% of recent days. Buying this heavy has often clustered near short-term lows, so it can cut both ways.
The crowd is buying more downside protection than usual, heavier than 99% of recent days. Buying this heavy has often clustered near short-term lows, so it can cut both ways.
We called 1 of the last 4 sessions right. A coin flip on direction is about half. We keep score in the open.
Each call is marked only on the move from the open to the close, the part of the day still ahead when we make it. We restarted the score on 8 Sept.
Whether the overnight move in futures holds into the 9:30 open, or fades in the first half hour.
ES/NQ overnight strongly red
Futures heavy
QQQ options price a rally; on our record that crowd has usually been wrong, so this reads as a bear vote
Options crowd chasing upside
Updated 33m ago · 14 signals
An outlook built from live market data. It is not a forecast anyone should rely on, and it can be wrong.
Market intelligence only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer to buy or sell any security. No trade execution.