Next session · the S&P 500

Friday · Jul 31

Live · updated 9m ago
DeciferedFriday · Jul 31

What Friday turns on: Pressure building on the yen.

The backdrop looks healthy, with markets calming down. But pressure building on the yen is the one thing pulling Friday lower. Most likely a small move, with about a 52% lean lower. A session like this can still swing either way.

What tomorrow could doThe whole spread, not one number. Higher means more likely.52%lower48%highertoday
Most likelybetween -1.86% and +1.82%

Red is the chance of a lower close, green a higher one. A wide day expected, with no clear lean. Roughly a coin flip on direction. The dashed line is the options crowd's own spread.

Our prediction
Lowerroughly a coin flip
What is moving the callThe changes that shifted into this session, versus the steady backdrop.
Markets calming down
Futures pointing up
Backdrop, steady
Pressure building on the yenRates holding steadyGeopolitical tension easingMoney rotating into riskBroad market supportAn oil supply shockA flight to goldRange-bound market
The options crowdMixed
usthe crowdtodayhighera drop

Mixed signals from the options crowd. The options pricing is even on direction, and is braced for a bigger move than we expect. Options activity looks about normal for direction.

Options activity looks about normal for direction.

Have we earned it? Our honest scorecard
✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✗✓✓

We called 9 of the last 10 sessions right. A coin flip on direction is about half. We keep score in the open.

What to watch

USD/JPY below 155 at 9:20 AM ET means carry unwind started

USD/JPY

159.38

10Y Yield

4.65%

Updated 9m ago · 11 signals