The thesis

CG Oncology develops oncolytic immunotherapy for bladder cancer patients. The company's 1982.7% revenue growth rate and -66482.0% gross margin indicate significant investment in growth. With a conviction score of 42, the setup is interesting due to the disconnect between the analyst consensus rating of BUY and the DCF intrinsic value of $-4. This disconnect suggests a potential mispricing,

Why now

The current macro environment, with China's chip tool push and the US-China squeeze, may impact CGON's ability to secure funding or partnerships. The recent criticism of Biden's oil reserve management and the resulting 43-year low in oil reserves may also affect the company's financials,

What to watch

The company's upcoming quarterly earnings report will be crucial in confirming or denying the thesis, particularly the revenue growth rate and gross margin performance. Investors should also monitor any updates on the company's partnerships or funding announcements over the next 1-3 quarters to gauge the impact of the macro environment on CGON's prospects

Key risks

Valuation risk is a major concern due to the significant disconnect between the analyst consensus and the DCF intrinsic value. Execution risk is also a factor, as the company's -3683.0% net margin indicates substantial operational losses. Competitive risk from established players in the oncology market is another potential threat,