The thesis

Joby Aviation is a vertically integrated air mobility firm developing electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. The company's gross margin is 1123.0% and net margin is -1233.0%, indicating significant investment in growth. With a conviction tier of 35/100, the company's valuation is a concern. The analyst consensus rating is HOLD, reflecting uncertainty about the company's prospects.

Why now

The current macro context, with China's chip tool push and the US-China squeeze, highlights the importance of innovative technologies like Joby Aviation's eVTOL aircraft. The company's DCF intrinsic value of $0 raises questions about its valuation and growth prospects.

What to watch

Investors should watch the company's future financial reports, particularly its revenue growth and margin expansion, to assess its ability to execute on its growth strategy. The company's progress in developing and launching its aerial ridesharing service will also be a key indicator of its prospects over the next 1-3 quarters.

Key risks

Valuation risk is a major concern, given the company's negative P/E ratio of -7.3x and significant net losses. Execution risk is also a factor, as the company must successfully develop and launch its aerial ridesharing service. Macro risk, including the impact of the US-China trade tensions, could also affect the company's growth prospects.