The thesis

Rigetti Computing develops quantum computers and processors, benefiting from a $2B US federal investment. The company's revenue growth is 198.9% year-over-year, despite a net margin of -2254.0%. With a conviction score of 42, the setup is interesting due to the contrast between strong growth and poor margins. Analysts consensus rating is BUY, but the company's valuation is uncertain.

Why now

The recent US federal quantum investment announced in May 2026 and China's chip tool push create a compelling market dynamic. With a small revenue base and high risk of being a feature, not a company, the next quarter's revenue will be crucial.

What to watch

The company's ability to meet its Q4 revenue targets and improve its net margin will be key indicators of its success over the next quarter. The progress of the Lyra chip roadmap, targeting 100-qubit systems, will also be an important metric to watch.

Key risks

The company's high net margin loss and reliance on government investment pose significant risks. Valuation risk is also a concern, given the company's negative intrinsic value and high revenue growth expectations. Execution risk is another key concern, as the company missed Q4 revenue by 22%.

Theme exposure