September 25, 2026
The US and Iran are discussing a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the US blockade, sources say.
What happened
Diplomatic sources report the US and Iran are in talks for a phased agreement. A deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade. The news moved roughly 817 billion dollars of market value.
Why it matters
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would restore the flow of Gulf oil and gas, directly easing supply fears that have kept crude prices elevated. Combined with oil already down 6.3 percent over the past week and defence stocks no longer leading, markets are reading the talks as a real de-escalation. More stable energy supply lowers fuel costs for transport and consumer goods and calms one of the biggest risks hanging over global growth.
The case against
The talks could collapse or be a feint; Yemen's Houthis claimed an attack on Saudi military sites today with no Saudi confirmation either way, showing the region remains volatile. Even if a deal is signed, verification and phased implementation could drag on, meaning risk still lurks until oil and tanker flows are physically moving again.
Our read
Oil is down 6.3 percent over the past week and defence stocks are no longer leading, which fits our read that markets are pricing in de-escalation. Still, our grounded evidence holds that any physical interruption of Gulf flows would keep prices elevated for years.
What settles it
A concrete breakthrough or collapse of the US-Iran talks confirmed by both governments.