October 2, 2026
A weaker-than-expected jobs report cut the odds of a Fed rate hike this month to 16 percent, and Bitcoin jumped past 86,000 dollars.
What happened
The US jobs report came in softer than expected. On prediction markets, the probability of a Fed rate hike dropped to 16 percent. Bitcoin surged past 86,000 dollars as traders priced out an October hike. The shift moved roughly 100 billion dollars of market value.
Why it matters
A soft jobs report tells traders the economy is cooling, which makes the Fed less likely to raise borrowing costs. Lower rates make riskier assets like Bitcoin more attractive, because safe cash and bonds pay less. That is the chain here: fewer jobs, lower hike odds, money flows into risk.
The case against
A single jobs report is noisy and can be revised. Prediction market odds swing fast and 16 percent is not zero, so a hike is still on the table. And government bond yields are actually rising, up over the past week, which cuts against the idea that rate expectations are falling across the board.
What settles it
Whether the Fed's next decision matches the 16 percent odds, and whether later revisions confirm the jobs report was truly soft.