October 5, 2026
US equity futures held steady Monday with the market split ahead of this week's Fed minutes.
What happened
Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow futures were little changed. Futures have risen 0.8 percent over the past week. The flat open follows a roughly 500 billion dollar shift in market value driven by anticipation of the Fed minutes release.
Why it matters
The minutes may signal how long the Fed plans to keep rates high, which sets the price of money across the economy. Rising bond yields, down 0.8 percent on price over the past week, already show traders bracing for stickier policy. A hawkish tone would raise borrowing costs for companies and households, while a dovish surprise would ease them.
The case against
The market is not moving with conviction. Support and pressure are roughly balanced, chip stocks are in an uptrend but defence stocks are fading, underperforming by 1.8 percent over the past week. If the minutes contain no surprise, the steady drift may simply continue without a break.
What settles it
Whether the Fed minutes show a consensus for holding rates at current levels into the second half of the year or open the door to cuts sooner.